「可是中国呢！」驱动 AI 竞赛的两难

中国对本国企业实施了全球最严苛、最全面、负担最重的 AI 监管，至今已有三四年时间。正是在这段时期内，他们完成了大量的技术追赶。因此，那种认为‘对企业施加任何监管义务就必然会落后于完全不受约束的中国巨兽’的绝对二元论，完全脱离了现实。

China has had the world's strictest, most comprehensive, most burdensome AI regulations on its companies for 3 or 4 years at this point in time. And it's during that period of time […] that they did a lot of their catching up. So the idea that this is just a total binary of like any obligations you put on companies automatically puts you behind this totally wild unconstrained Chinese juggernaut. That is just not true.

语境：Matt Sheehan 驳斥硅谷和美国决策层常用的‘如果监管就会输给中国’论调，指出中国在实施极其沉重的内容审查与备案要求的同时仍实现了技术快速追赶，证明产业监管与技术竞争力并非简单的零和对立。

支持 → cbs-news-jacob-coxon-20260911

支持 → youtube-daniel-kokotajlo-20260908

在我看来，决定这件事情能否成功的关键，在于双方是否都出于各自的利益，真正相信这存在潜在的灾难性风险，并且为了自身的安全必须采取行动……这必须建立在共同利益而非相互信任的基础之上。

the thing that makes this work or not, in my opinion, is going to be whether or not both sides for their own reasons genuinely believe that this is a potentially catastrophic risk and believe that they need to take action on that for their own safety and security […] that is the area of mutual interest as opposed to mutual trust that things have to be built on

语境：探讨中美 AI 外交谈判的现实基石，指出在缺乏战略信任的大背景下，唯有双方均发自内心意识到模型失控是威胁各自政权与社会稳定的灾难性风险，才能找到达成实质安全协议的公约数。

支持 → youtube-daniel-kokotajlo-20260908

支持 → the-economist-yuval-harari-20260826